School of Management (SoM)
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Browsing School of Management (SoM) by Subject "33 Built Environment and Design"
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Item Open Access Machine learning application to disaster damage repair cost modelling of residential buildings(Taylor and Francis, 2025) Wanigarathna, Nadeeshani; Xie, Ying; Henjewele, Christian; Morga, Mariantonietta; Jones, KeithRestoring residential buildings following earthquake damage requires a significant level of resources. Being able to predict these resource requirements in advance and accurately improves the effectiveness of disaster preparedness and subsequent recovery activities. This research explored how the latest ML algorithms could be used for antecedent earthquake loss modelling. A cost database for repairing residential buildings damaged by the Emilia Romagna earthquake in Italy was analysed using six state-of-the-art ML models to explore their ability to predict repair cost rates(cost per floor area) for a domestic building damaged by earthquakes. A Gradient Boost Regression model outperformed five other models in predicting earthquake damage repair cost rate. The performance of this model was significantly accurate and covers about 76% of the cases. A further SHAP analysis revealed that operational level, damage level and non-housing area of the buildings as top 3 important features when predicting the resultant damage repair cost rate. Overall this research advanced antecedent earthquake loss modelling approaches to increase the accuracy of estimates by incorporating more variables than the widely used damage level based simple methodology.Item Embargo Managing sudden unexpected disruptions in complex projects: the antifragility hierarchy(Taylor and Francis, 2024-12-31) Usher, Greg; Cantarelli, Chantal C; Davis, Kate; Pinto, Jeffrey K; Turner, NeilProjects are prone to a variety of sudden unexpected disruptions across their development cycle, requiring that effective organizations develop strategies for proactively recognizing disruption likelihood and swiftly responding to these events. This paper explores a hierarchy of responses to disruption, based on Taleb’s theory of antifragile system behavior. Following this reasoning, we suggest that when faced with project disruptions, organizations need to investigate the means to trigger a ‘convex’ response that increases value through antifragile thinking. We propose an ‘antifragility hierarchy’ in which three key responses to project disruption are demonstrated, with a range of strategies available for addressing these disruptions. This hierarchy offers a novel conceptualization of responses to project disruption events, suggesting that the options available to organizations range from robust (the least effective) to antifragile (the most constructive). Finally, we offer a set of strategies for effectively responding to disruptions to promote antifragility in projects.