Browsing by Author "Hunter, Ruth F."

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    Future-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study
    (Elsevier, 2025-03-01) Garcia, Leandro; Hafezi, Mehdi; Lima, Larissa; Millett, Christopher; Thompson, Jason; Wang, Ruoyu; Akaraci, Selin; Goel, Rahul; Reis, Rodrigo; Nice, Kerry A.; Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Hallal, Pedro C.; Moro, Esteban; Amoako, Clifford; Hunter, Ruth F.
    BACKGROUND: The world faces increasing risk from more frequent and larger scale natural hazards, including infectious disease outbreaks (IDOs) and climate change-related extreme weather events (EWEs). These natural hazards are expected to have adverse mobility and public health impacts, with people living in cities especially vulnerable. Little is known about how transport systems can be optimally designed to make cities more resilient to these hazards. Our aim was to investigate how cities' transport systems, and their resulting mobility patterns, affect their capabilities to mitigate mobility and health impacts of future large-scale IDOs and EWEs. METHODS: System dynamics modelling was used to investigate how different city mobility scenarios can affect the health and mobility impacts of four plausible future IDO and EWE (flooding) shocks in three cities: Belfast, UK; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; and Delhi, India. Three city mobility scenarios with incremental degrees of modal shift towards active travel (private motor vehicle volume reduced to 50% and 20% of total road trip volume in vision 1 and 2, and motor vehicle volume [including buses] reduced to 20% of total road trip volume in vision 3) were tested. For each city and each IDO and EWE shock, we estimated the percentage of deaths prevented in visions 1, 2, and 3, relative to the reference scenario, as well as changes in mode share over time. FINDINGS: In all scenarios, all cities showed reduced susceptibility to flooding, with 4-50% of deaths potentially prevented, depending on case city, city mobility, and EWE scenario. The more ambitious the transition towards healthier city mobility patterns, the greater the resilience against flooding. Only vision 3 (the most ambitious transition) showed reduced vulnerability to IDOs, with 6-19% of deaths potentially prevented. Evolution of mode shares varied greatly across cities and mobility scenarios under the IDO shocks. INTERPRETATION: Our results emphasise the importance of well designed, forward-thinking urban transport systems that make cities more resilient and reduce the impact of future public health-related and climate-related threats. FUNDING: UK Prevention Research Partnership, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Health and Social Care Research and Development Office Northern Ireland.
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    GroundsWell: Community-engaged and data-informed systems transformation of Urban Green and Blue Space for population health – a new initiative
    (Taylor and Francis, 2022-09-20) Hunter, Ruth F.; Rodgers, Sarah E.; Hilton, Jeremy
    Natural environments, such as parks, woodlands and lakes, have positive impacts on health and wellbeing. Urban Green and Blue Spaces (UGBS), and the activities that take place in them, can significantly influence the health outcomes of all communities, and reduce health inequalities. Improving access and quality of UGBS needs understanding of the range of systems (e.g. planning, transport, environment, community) in which UGBS are located. UGBS offers an ideal exemplar for testing systems innovations as it reflects place-based and whole society processes, with potential to reduce non-communicable disease (NCD) risk and associated social inequalities in health. UGBS can impact multiple behavioural and environmental aetiological pathways. However, the systems which desire, design, develop, and deliver UGBS are fragmented and siloed, with ineffective mechanisms for data generation, knowledge exchange and mobilisation. Further, UGBS need to be co-designed with and by those whose health could benefit most from them, so they are appropriate, accessible, valued and used well. This paper describes a major new prevention research programme and partnership, GroundsWell, which aims to transform UGBS-related systems by improving how we plan, design, evaluate and manage UGBS so that it benefits all communities, especially those who are in poorest health. We use a broad definition of health to include physical, mental, social wellbeing and quality of life. Our objectives are to transform systems so that UGBS are planned, developed, implemented, maintained and evaluated with our communities and data systems to enhance health and reduce inequalities. GroundsWell will use interdisciplinary, problem-solving approaches to accelerate and optimise community collaborations among citizens, users, implementers, policymakers and researchers to impact research, policy, practice and active citizenship. GroundsWell will be shaped and developed in three pioneer cities (Belfast, Edinburgh, Liverpool) and their regional contexts, with embedded translational mechanisms to ensure that outputs and impact have UK-wide and international application. Keywords