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Browsing Staff publications (ES) by Author "Burgess, Paul J."

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    Perennial flower strips can be a cost‐effective tool for pest suppression in orchards
    (Wiley, 2025) Howard, Charlotte; Burgess, Paul J.; Fountain, Michelle T.; Brittain, Claire; Garratt, Michael P. D.
    Flower strips can provide many economic benefits in commercial orchards, including reducing crop damage by a problematic pest, rosy apple aphid (Dysaphis plantaginea [Passerini]). To explore the financial costs and benefits of this effect, we developed a bio‐economic model to compare the establishment and opportunity costs of perennial wildflower strips with benefits derived from increased yields due to reduced D. plantaginea fruit damage under high and low pest pressure. This was calculated across three scenarios: (1) a flower strip on land that would otherwise be an extension of the standard grass headland, (2) a flower strip on land that could otherwise be used to produce apples and (3) a flower strip in the centre of an orchard. Through reduction of D. plantaginea fruit damage alone, our study shows that flower strips on the headland can be a positive financial investment. If non‐crop land was not available, establishment of a flower strip in the centre of an orchard, instead of the edge, could recoup opportunity costs by providing benefits to crops on both sides of the flower strip. Our study can help guide the optimal placement of flower strips and inform subsidy value for these schemes.
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    Predicted yield and soil organic carbon changes in agroforestry, woodland, grassland, and arable systems under climate change in a cool temperate Atlantic climate
    (Springer, 2025-05) Giannitsopoulos, Michail L.; Burgess, Paul J.; Graves, Anil R.; Olave, Rodrigo J.; Eden, Jonathan M.; Herzog, Felix
    The impact of a changing climate on crop and tree growth remains complex and uncertain. Whilst some areas may benefit from longer growing seasons and increased CO2 levels, others face threats from more frequent extreme weather events. Models can play a pivotal role in predicting future agricultural and forestry scenarios as they can guide decision-making by investigating the interactions of crops, trees, and the environment. This study used the biophysical EcoYield-SAFE agroforestry model to account for the atmospheric CO2 fertilization and calibrated the model using existing field measurements and weather data from 1989 to 2021 in a case study in Northern Ireland. The study then looked at two future climate scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2020–2060 and 2060–2100. The predicted net impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and arable yields and tree growth were positive with increasing CO2 fertilization, which more than offset a generally negative effect of increased temperature and drought stress. The predicted land equivalent ratio remained relatively constant for the baseline and future climate scenarios for silvopastoral and silvoarable agroforestry. Greater losses of soil organic carbon were predicted under arable (1.02–1.18 t C ha−1 yr−1) than grassland (0.43–0.55 t C ha−1 yr−1) systems, with relatively small differences between the baseline and climate scenarios. However, the predicted loss of soil organic carbon was reduced in the long-term by planting trees. The model was also used to examine the effect of different tree densities on the trade-offs between timber volume and understory crop yields. To our best knowledge this is the first study that has calibrated and validated a model that accounts for the effect of CO2 fertilization and determined the effect of future climate scenarios on arable, grassland, woodland, silvopastoral, and silvoarable systems at the same site in Europe.