An update on ozone profile trends for the period 2000 to 2016
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Froidevaux, Lucien
Fuller, Ryan
Wang, Ray
Anderson, John
Roth, Chris
Bourassa, Adam
Degenstein, Doug
Damadeo, Robert
Zawodny, Joe
Frith, Stacey
McPeters, Richard
Bhartia, Pawan
Wild, Jeannette
Long, Craig
Davis, Sean
Rosenlof, Karen
Sofieva, Viktoria
Walker, Kaley
Rahpoe, Nabiz
Rozanov, Alexei
Weber, Mark
Laeng, Alexandra
von Clarmann, Thomas
Stiller, Gabriele
Kramarova, Natalya
Godin-Beekmann, Sophie
Leblanc, Thierry
Querel, Richard
Swart, Daan
Boyd, Ian
Hocke, Klemens
Kämpfer, Niklaus
Maillard Barras, Eliane
Moreira, Lorena
Nedoluha, Gerald
Vigouroux, Corinne
Blumenstock, Thomas
Schneider, Matthias
García, Omaira
Jones, Nicholas
Mahieu, Emmanuel
Smale, Dan
Kotkamp, Michael
Robinson, John
Petropavlovskikh, Irina
Harris, Neil
Hassler, Birgit
Hubert, Daan
Tummon, Fiona
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Abstract
Ozone profile trends over the period 2000 to 2016 from several merged satellite ozone data sets and from ground-based data measured by four techniques at stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change indicate significant ozone increases in the upper stratosphere, between 35 and 48 km altitude (5 and 1 hPa). Near 2 hPa (42 km), ozone has been increasing by about 1.5 % per decade in the tropics (20° S to 20° N), and by 2 to 2.5 % per decade in the 35 to 60° latitude bands of both hemispheres. At levels below 35 km (5 hPa), 2000 to 2016 ozone trends are smaller and not statistically significant. The observed trend profiles are consistent with expectations from chemistry climate model simulations. This study confirms positive trends of upper stratospheric ozone already reported, e.g., in the WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment 2014 or by Harris et al. (2015). Compared to those studies, three to four additional years of observations, updated and improved data sets with reduced drift, and the fact that nearly all individual data sets indicate ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, all give enhanced confidence. Uncertainties have been reduced, for example for the trend near 2 hPa in the 35 to 60° latitude bands from about ±5 % (2σ) in Harris et al. (2015) to less than ±2 % (2σ). Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of possible drifts and differences between various data sources is still required, as is a detailed attribution of the observed increases to declining ozone-depleting substances and to stratospheric cooling. Ongoing quality observations from multiple independent platforms are key for verifying that recovery of the ozone layer continues as expected.